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A Timeline of Brexit’s Potential Effects

By CIEEM Insurance Services
15.07.16

It is important to plan how your organisation will manage the potential effects of Brexit. To help your company be successful in this process, consult this timeline:

First 100 Days

  • Economic: There will be market volatility, and the pound will plummet.
  • Business: There will be a delay in investment decisions, and some investors may pull out.
  • Legal and regulatory: Nothing will change until Britain submits Article 50, which begins the two-year negotiation to exit from the EU.
  • Market access: Market access will remain the same during the negotiation period.

2 Years

  • Economic: Britain may be able to maintain access to the single market. However, the cost of goods may experience inflation, and Britons may spend less.
  • Business: Some businesses will make investment/relocation decisions, but most will probably wait for stabilisation.
  • Legal and regulatory: Direct EU regulations will no longer apply to UK businesses. In addition, Parliament will agree on and enforce new legal and regulatory framework.
  • Market access: Britain will renegotiate its access to the single market and its third country EU trade agreements.

Beyond 2 Years

  • Economic: The value of the pound may still be recovering from its initial fall.
  • Business: UK companies will have had a fair amount of time to adopt.
  • Legal and regulatory: It is unlikely that new UK legislation will be finalised by now.
  • Market access: The focus of new trade deals will be on the movement of goods—services may be slower and the movement of people more limited.
  • While this timeline is speculative, treat it with a certain amount of gravitas in order to help your company properly prepare.

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